The National League South Heads Towards An Appropriately Chaotic Denouement

It's been simmering away like this all season, and now the National League South title race is heading towards a final day like no other.

This season has had a few tight title races, but nothing has compared to the National League South. There didn’t seem to be a particularly clear favourite to win it at the start of the season, but few would have expected a title race which has led to a final weekend in which no fewer than six teams could still lift the title. There will, of course, be some readers looking at this and thinking that this surely can’t even be possible, but if anything it feels as though the stars have aligned for this state of affairs to come to pass.

The top six are divided into three groups of two, with Truro City and Torquay United on 86 points, Eastbourne Borough and Worthing on 85 points, and Boreham Wood and Dorking Wanderers on 83. Ah, I hear you ask, but what about goal difference? Surely that mean that least one or two of the six are still in it in a theoretical sense only, aren’t they? Nope. The opposite, if anything.

It’s the two teams on 83 points who have the best goal difference of the six, so if the other five all lose either of those two could yet go top. And in a remarkable little bit of fixture scheduling serendipity, none of the six are playing each other on the final day either, meaning that half of the division’s final fixtures could have a direct impact on the eventual direction of the league title itself. There hasn’t been a final day of the season like this before.

At the top of the table going into the final day of the season are Truro City. Cornwall has never had a football club playing at this level of the game, so their match could be of relevance to an entire county. They’re at home to St Albans City, who need a win themselves in order to avoid relegation. A win should be enough for them to lift the title, although this isn’t guaranteed.

Truro City have had something of a troubled history. Under the ownership of Kevin Heaney there were big plans for the club, but by 2011 they were under the threat of a winding up order from HMRC and by August 2012 Heaney had gone, with the club labouring under the weight of an ever-expanding debt.

It was a close thing. They nearly went to the wall altogether. By this time the club had reached the National League South, but relegation followed after just two years. They were rescued, and have been promoted and relegated into this division a couple of times since. Cornwall has never had a club play as high as the National League before.

The root cause of all this seemed to be over-ambition. Plans for a “Stadium for Cornwall” repeatedly hit a brick wall, and the club was forced to sell their Treyew Road ground in 2014, groundsharing away from home from 2018 at Torquay United, Plymouth Parkway, Taunton Town and Gloucester City before finally moving into a new home in August 2024. A win for Truro will be enough for them to lift the trophy unless…

Torquay United are in second place, and they have an away match at Hemel Hempstead Town. Should Truro lose to St Albans, Torquay would need a draw to lift the title themselves. Should Truro draw, any win would be enough. Should Truro win, Torquay could still lift the title if they can win by two goals more than Truro did. But even this is complicated. With Truro’s goal difference standing at 70-40 and Torquay’s at 69-41, it’s entirely possible that the top two could end the season with identical records. This, briefly, is how the National League separates teams in such circumstances:

12.2.1 Goal difference – If any two or more Clubs have scored the same number of points their position in the division shall be determined on goal difference, that is to say, the difference between the total number of goals scored by and against a Club in League Matches in that Season, and the higher or highest placed Club shall be the Club with the higher or highest goal difference.

12.2.2 In the event of the goal difference being equal the highest placed Club shall be the Club which has scored the most goals;

12.2.3 In the event that two or more Clubs have the same goal difference and have scored the same number of goals then the highest placed Club shall be the Club which has won the most matches.

12.2.4 In the event of the two Clubs still being equal the Club which has the better playing record against the other Club in their head to head Competition matches during the Season will be the highest placed Club.

12.2.5 If the records of two or more Clubs are still equal and it is necessary for any reason to determine the position of each then the Clubs concerned shall play off a deciding match or matches on a neutral ground or grounds with the net gate money after deducting the usual matches expenses being divided equally between the two competing Clubs.

So, if both teams won their final matches but ended up with identical goals scored and conceded, Truro City would lift the title for having won one more game over the season than Torquay, but there are so many permutations hanging over these games that trying to predict a winner here is like searching for a needle in a haystack.

Truro’s opponents need a win to have any chance of avoiding relegation while Torquay’s have nothing concrete to play for. Could this make some sort of difference? Difficult to say. Should these two teams both win, what the other four get up to becomes a bit of an irrelevance, but should they slip any of the other four could step in and win it themselves.

Third-placed Eastbourne Borough are at home against Weston-Super-Mare, who led the table briefly themselves earlier this season before falling away but are 8th now, one place below the final playoff place but with finishing higher practically impossible. Should the top two fail to win, Eastbourne would need a win themselves to lift the title, since although they’re only a point adrift of them their goal difference is substantially worse.

In 4th place are Worthing, who led the table throughout some of the last few weeks but who’ve thrown away the nearest that the division has had to a commanding lead all season with some patchy recent form. Should the top two fail to win, a better result for them from their trip to Enfield Town than Eastbourne can manage from their match could yet take the league title to Sussex. Enfield need a point to ensure avoiding relegation, so they have something to play for themselves.

By the time we get down to the 5th and 6th placed teams, it’s all starting to look a little unlikely. These two clubs need all of the top four to fail to win, though there is still a glimmer of possibility for both of them. Boreham Wood are 5th, and they’re away to Tonbridge Angels. Should Truro City and Torquay both lose—a draw will but them beyond reach—and Eastbourne Borough and Worthing both fail to win, a win for Wood would hand them the title.

Unless.

Boreham Wood are tied on points with Dorking Wanderers, but Wood’s goal difference is better. So, should Truro and Torquay lose, Eastbourne and Worthing fail to win, Dorking could still lift the title should Boreham Wood fail to win at Tonbridge or should Dorking win by three goals more than them in their game against Alex Horne’s Chesham United.

It has to be said that the sequence of events required to get to either Boreham Wood or Dorking Wanderers lifting the trophy seems unlikely, to say the least, though this year’s National League South has been sufficiently eccentric for it not be able to be ruled out at present. These two clubs are also, by some distance, the top goal scorers in the division this season.

And it should also be borne in mind that the National League South season doesn’t end this weekend. There are still playoff positions to play for. These are more or less decided, with Maidstone United in 7th occupying the final spot, but there’s still a lot else to play for. As with the rest of the non-league game, playoff matches are played at the venue of the higher placed team, with those who finish second and third getting a bye to the semi-finals.

What this means in practice is that you want to avoid fourth, fifth and sixth place because that will mean an extra ‘quarter-final’ match to play. It also matters to those who finish second or third, because whoever finishes second in the table is guaranteed home matches for both their semi-final match and—should they win that—the final as well. So there’s a lot to play for for, even if comes through that, say, Truro are three goals up in the first ten minutes and the actual championship trophy’s ultimate destination is quickly established.

It’s complicated and confusing, and it’s been that way all season. But more than anything else, it’s been interesting. It’s felt as though practically every team in the top six has had a moment when it’s looked as though they could be slipping into gear and set to leave the rest behind, only to start stumbling themselves when they reach the summit. With five wins from their last six, Torquay are the form team among them, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned from this season in the National League South, it’s that anything could happen this Saturday afternoon and we shouldn’t be surprised.